Mark Woeppel on Management and Execution

We did a very successful Theory of Constraints Implementation a while back, that incorporated a wide variety of approaches. 

• Critical Chain Project Management
• Process Reengineering
• Supply Chain Management

The results were great.  So we made a presentation telling our story.  Here it is on slide share.

The Article is can be found on the website by clicking on the link below

Pit Crews cut final assembly time in half, giving FMC Technologies “The Racer’s Edge.”

Probabilistic project scheduling uses an understanding of the variation in project tasks and the project environment (project risks) to make a quantitative prediction of a range of project outcomes. Instead of providing a fixed date to answer a question such as “When is first oil?” probabilistic scheduling provides a range of answers of the type, “There is a 50% chance of achieving first oil by date x or sooner, and a 90% chance of achieving it by date y or sooner.”

A more general application of probabilistic planning also considers the range of project costs and returns. This evaluation focused on the range of outcomes for key project dates, such as first oil. Quantifying the range and probability of outcomes can aid project planning and decision-making.

Probabilistic scheduling provides a method to quantify the risk management process. Quantifying the impact of potential risks improves decision-making affecting the control of those risks, and potentially on the overall financial viability of the project. It specifically aids the upfront recognition of critical issues and proactive management of those issues.

So how does better planning result in shorter project lead times? 

First of all, there are fewer surprises.  Having done a proper job of evaluating project risk and task durations, you’re prepared to deal with the “murphys” that always occur during project execution.  Since you’ve already prepared, you can respond much quicker, without wasting time.

Second, a good project plan moves these potential risk events off the critical path (if possible!).  By moving risk events off the path that determines project delivery, eliminating disruption to your deliveries.  That doesn’t happen without planning.

Third, the tasks themselves are stripped of the safety that most project plans have, with all task safety aggregated at the end of the critical chain.  Saftey aggregation allows you to manage the safety as a project level item, rather than letting it be dispersed to every resource in your project.  That means that you need less, and the overall project duration is shorter with greater certainty of completion on time.

Ok, I have a white paper that explains this much more.  Get it here.

On April 29, 8am-9:30am PST, I’ll be presenting a webinar on Critical Chain Project Management. This event is sponsored by the Theory of Constraints Certification Organization (TOCICO).

This one hour presentation (with a half hour for questions) by me, Mark Woeppel, will present the core concepts of the CCPM method as it applies to three main areas of projects: execution, planning & project portfolio management.

You’ll learn:

• The main reason most projects fail deliver on their promises of on time delivery, budget & scope.
• The core ideas behind CCPM
• Why CCPM delivers real results
• A strategy to improve your project performance

Free for TOCICO Members
Non-Members $40
All proceeds go to TOCICO

To enroll, click here

According to Kishore Sengupta, an associate professor at France’s Insead business school, says that project managers says with 10 or more years of experience collectively generated higher costs and more errors and missed more deadlines than less-experienced colleagues.

Mr. Sengupta developed a simulation program for project management that demonstrates when project managers fall into the patterns of behavior that worked in past projects generally did worse than less experienced project managers.

“The more experience we have, the more overconfident we get,” Mr. Sengupta says.

All of us fall into patterns of behavior.  This is especially true when that behavior was successful in the past.  How do we internalize this lesson and prevent behavioral inertia?

This has profound implications for managing change efforts, since successful managers believe they already have the answer.  In order to be effective, they must be made aware that the strategies of the past may not apply to the present.  It takes some internal honesty to question yourself.

If you’re managing a project, the buffer burn ratio is a reliable way to determine if your management strategies are effective.  If they are, you’ll see buffer recovery.  If not, you’ll see continuing consumption of the project buffer.  The good news is you’ll see it before the project is late – in time to discover your strategies are not working as you hoped.

The buffer burn ratio is essential to understanding the risk of completing the project on time.

Progress on a project is measured by the ratio of work to be completed to the amount of buffer remaining.  The ratio tells us when a project is in danger of not being completed on time.  For example, a project that has 100% of the work remaining and 100% of the buffer remaining has a ratio of 1:1; it’s on schedule. A project that has 80% of the work remaining and 40% of the buffer remaining has a ratio of 8:4; clearly, it’s at risk of not finishing on time.  This the Buffer Burn Ratio.

When tasks are delayed, they consume the buffer , potentially threatening the project completion date.  By identifying which tasks are creating the highest buffer burn ratio, the project manager knows which task to focus on right now. His efforts can then be directed to solving that problem, thus causing the entire project to move forward.

Buffer Burn Ratio Fever Chart

Read the full article about learning from the past at the Wall Street Journal here.

You may already know this, but a CCPM implementation is not much to fear.  Think of it this way: “CCPM is a disciplined approach to managing the work we already do.”  The reality is, that the work of your firm does not change.

CCPM is simply addition and subtraction.

You’re adding some new behaviors:

• Planning with different task estimates

• A slightly different approach to planning your projects (moving the buffer)

• Focusing execution effort on buffer penetration, instead of the telephone

You’re stopping others:

• Multi-tasking

• Expediting

• Planning without considering resource capacity

It seems more daunting than it really is.  The risk of failure is very low.  Even if you do a little or partial implementation, you get results.

The most significant thing in these implementations is not the technology, but managing the change; dealing with changing behavior in the face of an uncertain (in the minds of your team, anyway) outcome.

The technology is well understood, you can use a simple tool like CCPM+ to get moving and make the move to a more robust software solution later.

The culture change for your business is moving to one where managers quickly respond to problems that may occur.  It’s primarily a leadership challenge, rather than a technical one.  So if you feel you have a handle on this, you can implement quite easily.  If not, that’s the biggest battle you’ll fight.